A Tale of Two Scenarios: Vaccination's Impact on Covid-19 Trajectories in Jordan
Main Article Content
Abstract
The novel coronavirus Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)-Coronavirus-2 (CoV-2) has resulted in an ongoing pandemic and has affected most of the countries around the world. Mathematical epidemic models can be used to predict the course of an epidemic and ensure the significance of vaccination by comparing it to no vaccination. Materials and methods: Extended SIR models were used to show and understand the predicted progression of Covid-19 with and without vaccination strategy. SEIRD model was used to predict Covid-19 cases and deaths in the no vaccination scenario while SEIRDV model was used for the vaccination scenario. Parameters were taken from published articles and reports. Results: SEIR models indicated higher infection and death rates without vaccination. Number of infected cases reached its peak in the first 100 days of 2021, with a gradual declining in the number of infections and becomes plateaued after day 100 which approximately at the end of March. At its peak, the infection could affect up to about 10% of the population leading to 109,671 deaths in the absence of vaccination but with the effect of social distancing and control measurements taken in Jordan in 2020. Number of infected cases with the effect of vaccination and maintaining social distances reached its peak in the first 10 days of 2022. At its peak, the infection could affect up to approximately 15,629 cases leading to 746 death cases which makes the total of deaths 13,399 cases. Conclusion: Vaccination significantly reduced Covid-19 impact, leading to fewer cases and deaths compared to no vaccination.
Downloads
Article Details
References
Alamri FS, Boone EL, Ghanam R, Alswaidi F. Monitoring Covid-19 pandemic in Saudi Arabia using SEIRD model parameters with MEWMA. Journal of Infection and Public Health. 2023;16(12):2038-45. doi: 10.1016/j.jiph.2023.09.009
Youssef HM, Alghamdi NA, Ezzat MA, El-Bary AA, Shawky AM. A modified SEIR model applied to the data of Covid-19 spread in Saudi Arabia. AIP Adv. 2020;10(12):125210. doi: 10.1063/5.0029698
Filip R, Gheorghita Puscaselu R, Anchidin-Norocel L, Dimian M, Savage WK. Global Challenges to Public Health Care Systems during the Covid-19 Pandemic: A Review of Pandemic Measures and Problems. J Pers Med. 2022;12(8). doi: 10.3390/jpm12081295
Wouters OJ, Shadlen KC, Salcher-Konrad M, Pollard AJ, Larson HJ, Teerawattananon Y, Jit M. Challenges in ensuring global access to Covid-19 vaccines: production, affordability, allocation, and deployment. The Lancet. 2021;397(10278):1023-34. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00306-8
Tenforde MW. Effectiveness of Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines against Covid-19 among hospitalized adults aged≥ 65 years—United States, January–March 2021. MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report. 2021;70. doi: 10.15585/mmwr.mm7018e1
Wang WC, Fann JC, Chang RE, Jeng YC, Hsu CY, Chen HH, Liu JT, Yen AM. Economic evaluation for mass vaccination against Covid-19. Journal of the Formosan Medical Association. 2021;120:S95-105. doi: 10.1016/j.jfma.2021.05.020
Kaufmann JR, Miller R, Cheyne J. Vaccine supply chains need to be better funded and strengthened, or lives will be at risk. Health Affairs. 2011;30(6):1113-21. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2011.0368
Nazer LH, Tuffaha H. Health Care and Pharmacy Practice in Jordan. Can J Hosp Pharm. 2017;70(2):150. doi: 10.4212/cjhp.v70i2.1649
Department of statistics-Jordan. Department of Statistics. 2022 [cited 2023 Feb 6]. Available from: https://portal.jordan.gov. jo/wps/portal/ Home/Government Entities/Ministries /Ministry/Ministry% 20of% 20Planning% 20and %20International% 20Cooperation/ Department% 20of%20 Statistics /!ut/p/z1 /hZDRisIwFER_ JX6A3GxMhT6GqiXWil Zha14kaKwBvBvSlpcNe_3y h93X rf5nIGZg YU1KBQ P2yjg3Wob1Ef 1PQo-H.
Olaimat AN, Aolymat I, Shahbaz HM, Holley RA. Knowledge and Information Sources About Covid-19 Among University Students in Jordan: A Cross-Sectional Study. Front Public Heal. 2020; 8:254. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2020.00254.
Kheirallah KA, Alsinglawi B, Alzoubi A, Saidan MN, Mubin O, Alorjani MS, et al. The Effect of Strict State Measures on the Epidemiologic Curve of Covid-19 Infection in the Context of a Developing Country: A Simulation from Jordan. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020;17(18):6530. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17186530.
Samrah SM, Al-Mistarehi AHW, Ibnian AM, Raffee LA, Momany SM, Al-Ali M, et al. Covid-19 outbreak in Jordan: Epidemiological features clinical characteristics and laboratory findings. Ann Med Surg. 2020; 57:103–8. doi: 10.1016/j.amsu.2020.07.020
Al Ibrahim H, Berri N, Hoch E, Wolters N, Leuschner K, Abir M. Pulse-Check: Exploration of Early Covid-19 Pandemic Health Care and Public Health Responses in Select Middle East Nations. RAND; 2022. [cited 2023 Jun 19]. Available from: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1340-1.html
Qaqish A, Al-Omari M, Abbas MM, Ghazo M. Two years of Covid-19 pandemic in Jordan: A focus on epidemiology and vaccination. J Glob Health. 2022; 12:03063. doi: 10.7189/jogh.12.03063.
Dahmash EZ, Madi T, Shatat A, Oroud Y, Hassan SK, Nassar O, et al. Assessment of Hospital Readiness to Respond to Covid-19 Pandemic in Jordan—A Cross Sectional Study. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023; 20(3):1798. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20031798.
Nazia Wolters, Mahshid Abir. Jordan: Challenges and Successes in Covid-19 Pandemic Response. 2022 [cited 2023 Jun 19]. Available from: https://www.rand.org/blog/2022/06/jordan-challenges-and-successes-in-Covid-19-pandemic.html.
Bindhim NF, Althumiri NA, Basyouni MH, Almousa N, Aljuwaysim MF, Alhakbani A, et al. Exploring the Impact of Covid-19 Response on Population Health in Saudi Arabia: Results from the “Sharik” Health Indicators Surveillance System during 2020. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021; 18(10):5291. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18105291.
Nurunnabi M. The preventive strategies of Covid-19 pandemic in Saudi Arabia. J Microbiol Immunol Infect. 2021; 54(1):127. doi: 10.1016/j.jmii.2020.07.023
Abu-Hammad O, Alduraidi H, Abu-Hammad S, Alnazzawi A, Babkair H, Abu-Hammad A, et al. Side Effects Reported by Jordanian Healthcare Workers Who Received Covid-19 Vaccines. Vaccines. 2021; 9(6). doi:10.3390/vaccines9060577
Al-Shaikh A, Muthu N, Aidyralieva C, Profili MC, Bellizzi S. Covid-19 vaccine roll-out in middle-income countries: Lessons learned from the Jordan experience. Vaccine. 2021;39(34):4769. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.06.078
Menda K, Laird L, Kochenderfer MJ, Caceres RS. Explaining Covid-19 outbreaks with reactive SEIRD models. Sci Reports. 2021;11(1):1–12. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-97260-0.
Korolev I. Identification and estimation of the SEIRD epidemic model for Covid-19. J Econom. 2021; 220(1):63. DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.038.
Xu C, Yu Y, Ren G, Sun Y, Si X. Stability analysis and optimal control of a fractional-order generalized SEIR model for the Covid-19 pandemic. Appl Math Comput. 2023; 457:128210. doi: 10.1016/j.amc.2023.128210.
Almomani E, Alabbadi I, Fasseeh A, Al-Qutob R, Al-Sharu E, Hayek N, et al. Implementation Road Map of Health Technology Assessment in Middle-Income Countries: The Case of Jordan. Value Heal Reg Issues. 2021; 25:126–34. doi: 10.1016/j.vhri.2021.01.003
Loli Piccolomini E, Zama F. Monitoring Italian Covid-19 spread by a forced SEIRD model. PLoS One. 2020;15(8). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0237417.
Alboaneen D, Pranggono B, Alshammari D, Alqahtani N, Alyaffer R. Predicting the Epidemiological Outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) in Saudi Arabia. Int J Environ Res Public Heal. 2020; 17(12):4568. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17124568.
Locey KJ, Webb TA, Khan J, Antony AK, Hota B. An interactive tool to forecast US hospital needs in the coronavirus 2019 pandemic. JAMIA Open. 2021; 3(4):506–12. doi: 10.1093/jamiaopen/ooaa045.
Attaallah A, Khatri S, Nadeem M, Ansar SA, Pandey AK, Agrawal A. Prediction of Covid-19 Pandemic Spread in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Computer Systems Science & Engineering. 2021;37(3). doi:10.32604/csse.2021.014933
Oshinubi K, Rachdi M, Demongeot J. Analysis of Reproduction Number R0 of Covid-19 Using Current Health Expenditure as Gross Domestic Product Percentage (CHE/GDP) across Countries. Healthc. 2021; 9(10):1247. doi: 10.3390/healthcare9101247.
Ahmad N. Covid-19 Modeling in Saudi Arabia Using the Modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) Model. Cureus. 2020; 12(9). doi: 10.7759/cureus.10452
De Falco I, Della Cioppa A, Scafuri U, Tarantino E. Coronavirus Covid-19 spreading in Italy: optimizing an epidemiological model with dynamic social distancing through Differential Evolution. 2020 [cited 2023 Jun 24]. Available from: https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.00553v3.
Walsh KA, Spillane S, Comber L, Cardwell K, Harrington P, Connell J, et al. The duration of infectiousness of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2. J Infect. 2020; 81(6):847. doi: 10.1016/j.jinf.2020.10.009.
Jordan Population (2023) - Worldometer. [cited 2023 Jun 23]. Available from: https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/jordan-population/.
Hamzah AFB, Lau CH, Nazri H, Ligot DV, Lee G, Liang Tan C, et al. CoronaTracker: World-wide Covid-19 Outbreak Data Analysis and Prediction CoronaTracker Community Research Group Correspondence to Fairoza. 2020 [cited 2023 Jun 24]. Available from: http://dx.doi.org/10.2471/BLT.20.255695
Our World in Data. Jordan: Coronavirus Pandemic Country Profile - Our World in Data. 2023 [cited 2023 Jun 24]. Available from: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/jordan.
MoH. Ministry of Health the official website of the Jordanian Ministry of Health | Coronavirus disease. 2020 [cited 2023 Feb 25]. Available from: https://corona.moh.gov.jo/en.
Ghostine R, Gharamti M, Hassrouny S, Hoteit I. An Extended SEIR Model with Vaccination for Forecasting the Covid-19 Pandemic in Saudi Arabia Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter. Math. 2021; 9(6):636. doi: 10.3390/math9060636.
Poonia RC, Saudagar AKJ, Altameem A, Alkhathami M, Khan MB, Hasanat MHA. An Enhanced SEIR Model for Prediction of Covid-19 with Vaccination Effect. Life. 2022; 12(5):647. doi:10.3390/life12050647.
Polack FP, Thomas SJ, Kitchin N, Absalon J, Gurtman A, Lockhart S, et al. Safety and Efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine. N Engl J Med. 2020; 383(27):2603–15. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2034577.